Recently I ended up in a hand I've always worried about. Instincts always tell me to raise on pocket aces, but here's an example of a 4-8 limit cash game where it's not as easy a raise as it seems.
I'm on the button, and look down to see the two black beauties. Seems obvious when the action gets to me, I'm raising those aces. Except, at this nine player table, all six players in front of me call, meaning in theory there is $30 in the pot already (I say in theory because I'm not subtracting any rakes). If I raise that ups it to $38. And the purpose of a raise like this is to get rid of players and hopefully develop a potential heads up. But if I make it 38, the small blind is looking at $6 to a $38 pot. Unless he's holding 7-2, 8-3 or the like, logic says you put in the six, since it's better than 6 to 1 pot odds. Either way, the big blind then just has $4 to put into a pot of either $38 or possibly $44. 9 to 1 or 11 to 1 pot odds is an another easy move.
And as the action moves around a second time, there's no reason for anyone who called initially to now fold as the pot builds.
By the end of the first round betting, the pot can be at $72. That's real nice if your pocket aces hold up. But odds are really going against you now. Six initial callers indicate that no one feels real strong about their hands to raise, so you have a wide variety of hands, likely a couple of suited connectors, a K-J, and more importantly, very likely at least one, if not two, players with A-medium/low, a typical 4-8 starting hand that is worth sticking around cheap for, but not raising. What does this mean? It means with nine players, pocket Aces is least likely to improve. And it's very likely someone flops trips, a flush or connects the straight.
But is just a call any better? You wouldn't think so, but in a hand like this, I think it can be the proper play. No one is going to leave the hand, and it's unlikely you improve, but who is going to throw away Aces at any point on a hand? The pot will be nice enough by the end in the unlikely case the aces hold, but your bankroll takes less of a hit in the more likely case you lose.
At best, if everyone is in the hand, Aces hold about a 47 percent chance of winning. And that is based only on completely random hands held by others (in other words, no real legitimate starting hand, such as pocket pair, connectors, suited, etc...). But few players just play two random cards. Most have a reason to play, thus the realistic odds give the aces just a 15-25% chance of holding up.
The best scenario would be if you raised on the button and then either the small or big blind re-raised. $4 into a $40 pot may be no issue, but when you raise and the big blind re-raises, now everyone before you has to decide if $8 into the pot is worth it. The lead position is looking at $8 into a $52 pot.
Even though at this point pot odds suggest everyone would stick around, a few may fold just because psychologically 3-bets preflop is a lot tougher than 2, especially knowing that I can still reraise. So the big blind helps you out here.
Let's suppose it got back to me and everyone stayed. The pot has now grown to $92 and I can cap the betting with another raise if I want. It hard to say if capping makes sense then or not. If everyone stayed, a cap builds the pot, won't get rid of anybody and really makes the aces vulnerable. But if the aces hold, then that $144 preflop pot is nice.
In the real hand I just called. And the SB and BB just called. The flop came 7-2-Q rainbow. Three players check before a player bets. Two stay, two fold. I call. SB, BB fold, final guy calls.
Turn J. Now I know I'm dead. Same lead better leads out again. One caller, one folder. I call and one exits, leaving three of us. River is a 5, and I know I have no business staying after the leader leads out again. He gets called, and at this point even though I know I'm beat, pot odds say it makes no sense to lay down.
Indeed, first player had Q-7 suited for two pair and the other guy mucks, as do I.
It left me wondering if a raise might have chased him out, but still I think I made the right play.
No comments:
Post a Comment