Anyone who has played or watched tournament poker a while has heard the term "a chip and a chair" meaning as long as you are alive in a tournament, you have a chance to win, no matter how short your stack.
6/3 off did it for me.
It was a $65 buy in tournament. I was doing okay early but a tough beat got me short stacked (my AK lost to A 10 with us both all in) and as the end of the third level of this tournament approached, so did the first break. With just over 2000 in chips after the break essentially I'd have 10 big blinds, and way down in the tournament. I had decided as the last hand before the break came I was going all in. I had put my chips forward, and didn't look at my cards. I made it clear when I shoved I hadn't looked and I was either doubling up or going home.
Oddly I only got one caller, who turned over big slick. and I was packing up when I saw I had 6/3 off. Until the 3 hit on the river and no aces or kings had come. So at the break I now at least had a little over 20 BBs.
A few big win later and I hit the final table as the chip leader and after a while the final few players are chopping the prize money, and we are taking home $450+ each.
A chip (or two) and a chair indeed.
Wednesday, February 27, 2019
Wednesday, September 12, 2018
Making a plan
One thing that seems to befall a lot of players at the poker table is a lack of a plan.
From the moment I am dealt my card in a hand, I am already developing a plan. Of course the plan starts with, are these two cards worth playing, and if so at what cost? Many times, you are making that decision before you've had much time to think about it, but once you've decided to play your hand, you need to be thinking about action on the flop, turn and river and be willing to execute that plan.
Yes your plan can change, but you should build into it options
For example, if you have limped with pocket 8s and are third to act on the flop, before that flop comes you should already know what you plan to do. Your plan won't have every scenario covered, but you should have a general idea of how you will play those 8s if you hit trips on the flop, or if an Ace comes on the flop, etc...and how you react to action in front of you or no action.
And that plan should also involve who else is in the hand. For example: if a super tight player bets out on the flop I give up the 8s, whereas I may just call a standard player, and possibly raise an aggressive player (probably not how I would do it, but the idea is to know before hand).
But you also have to be able to follow through on that plan. At a recent tournament I had about 25 percent of the chips at our table after I had hit the nut flush on a hand that had been played fairly aggressively by a couple of players (I had A 10 diamonds in big blind, flop was Ace of hearts, King of diamonds and 4 of diamonds, giving me four to the flush and top pair turn was J of diamonds, completing the flush, the player that had the queen high flush bet out strong and eventually shoved on the river. He had me covered at the time, but this left him with about 1.5 big blinds). The guy that lost that hand had doubled up on back-to-back ensuing hands, and had played well enough to actually get his chip stack up again. He was still a ways behind me, but had become the only real threat at the table.
So I'm dealt pocket jacks on the button. My plan is to raise 4x the blinds, regardless of action in front of me. And if someone else raises, I'll go 2.5x their raise. Well the guy who had been on a roll raises a hefty 4x raise. One caller between us, and I abandon my plan and just call. The flop comes KK5, and there's four of us still in. When the initial raises bets out about 1/3 the pot size, I had already scrapped my plans, and reasoned that he must have a king, and fold. Well, the turn of course is a jack. And I feel like an idiot. I feel even worse when the showdown comes and the raiser shows AJ, which gave him two pair, but I likely would have had him eliminated had I stayed. But in my head he had been playing well and getting cards, so even with as strong as a a hand as I had, I gave it up, overthinking and not following the plan.
He now had the chip lead at our table, and I was a close second, but my mind was lost. Mentally I struggled to regain focus, and though I remained alive for over an hour after that, I wasn't close to the money, eliminated with three tables left, and only the final table paid.
That wasn't my plan at all.
From the moment I am dealt my card in a hand, I am already developing a plan. Of course the plan starts with, are these two cards worth playing, and if so at what cost? Many times, you are making that decision before you've had much time to think about it, but once you've decided to play your hand, you need to be thinking about action on the flop, turn and river and be willing to execute that plan.
Yes your plan can change, but you should build into it options
For example, if you have limped with pocket 8s and are third to act on the flop, before that flop comes you should already know what you plan to do. Your plan won't have every scenario covered, but you should have a general idea of how you will play those 8s if you hit trips on the flop, or if an Ace comes on the flop, etc...and how you react to action in front of you or no action.
And that plan should also involve who else is in the hand. For example: if a super tight player bets out on the flop I give up the 8s, whereas I may just call a standard player, and possibly raise an aggressive player (probably not how I would do it, but the idea is to know before hand).
But you also have to be able to follow through on that plan. At a recent tournament I had about 25 percent of the chips at our table after I had hit the nut flush on a hand that had been played fairly aggressively by a couple of players (I had A 10 diamonds in big blind, flop was Ace of hearts, King of diamonds and 4 of diamonds, giving me four to the flush and top pair turn was J of diamonds, completing the flush, the player that had the queen high flush bet out strong and eventually shoved on the river. He had me covered at the time, but this left him with about 1.5 big blinds). The guy that lost that hand had doubled up on back-to-back ensuing hands, and had played well enough to actually get his chip stack up again. He was still a ways behind me, but had become the only real threat at the table.
So I'm dealt pocket jacks on the button. My plan is to raise 4x the blinds, regardless of action in front of me. And if someone else raises, I'll go 2.5x their raise. Well the guy who had been on a roll raises a hefty 4x raise. One caller between us, and I abandon my plan and just call. The flop comes KK5, and there's four of us still in. When the initial raises bets out about 1/3 the pot size, I had already scrapped my plans, and reasoned that he must have a king, and fold. Well, the turn of course is a jack. And I feel like an idiot. I feel even worse when the showdown comes and the raiser shows AJ, which gave him two pair, but I likely would have had him eliminated had I stayed. But in my head he had been playing well and getting cards, so even with as strong as a a hand as I had, I gave it up, overthinking and not following the plan.
He now had the chip lead at our table, and I was a close second, but my mind was lost. Mentally I struggled to regain focus, and though I remained alive for over an hour after that, I wasn't close to the money, eliminated with three tables left, and only the final table paid.
That wasn't my plan at all.
Monday, January 9, 2012
A telling situation
A recent trip to the casino and I entered a simple $60 buy-in tournament, which usually draws about 150 or so entrants.
My opening table was a relatively conservative group. The kid two seats to my right looked like he just turned 18, but he showed to be a decent player. He showed a nice amount of aggression early without playing wild and he built up a nice chip stack.
I'm moderately ahead of the table average, but behind this kid when this early-stage hand comes along with me in the small blind.
I'm dealt AQ off suit. Action gets to him and he raises to 300 (blinds are 50/100). I call and one other player stays.
Flop is 8K5. I am curious as to where I am and bet moderately 300 and stare straight ahead. But because I am in a corner type seat, I can see the kid out of the corner of my eye. Other guy folds and the kid sits there staring at the board. After a few moments pass and me staring straight ahead he calls.
Turn card was another low card. I check and continue to glaze forward. Again, he stares at the board, looks down at his chips and bets $500. I call.
River is empty 8, pairing the board but not helping my hand. I check again and get the same reaction from the kid. Looking at the board, nothing more. I look at him. He stares at the board, then looks directly down at his chips, grabbing about $1600 which he throws in the pot.
I'm dead. I have nothing and he's been betting the whole time. A call makes no sense for me because if I do it and lose, I'm down to about 600 chips.
I still question his hands: Does he have quad eights? Does he have trip eights? Does he have a king?
To answer I replay the hand in my head, and quickly eliminate an 8, mainly because a flop with a king probably would have slowed him down a bit. The couple hands I've seen him show down his style has been limp with small to medium pairs and raise with Ace/anything, and I haven't seen him show down high pairs.
I don't get into all the reasoning here, but eventually I figure his likely hands are AK or pocket kings. But as I replay the hand, the most important factor stares at me: he never looked at me, or my stack...and this has not been in his style except very early when we were all even.
His actions were look at the board and look at his own stack, moves some very inexperienced players will make when they are simply asking themselves, how much can I lose if my bluff fails here. (People that watch tell videos or study tells know that if a player looks at their chips it's usually a sign of strength. But this tell is almost always done immediately and often without thinking, a big difference from what he was doing). If he had trips or even a king, he'd be more curious to find out how much more he can win from me. And so his bet seemed more random than "I really want you to bet."
And as I try to decide my move, I look at him, look at the board, look ahead and pick up my cards, shuffling them in my hands. He can't take his eyes off the board.
I call. He turns over A 10 off, and I take down the pot. From that point forward, I pretty much own him the rest of the tournament, and the table also sits shocked I made the call. But it made it a lot easier to build up my stack from then on out and leave the table many rounds later as the large stack.
As a side note: The kid outlasted me. He got a few nice wins on races and kept playing an overall solid game. He and I ended up at the same table together when I got eliminated outside about 6 spots outside the money. My losing hand was AK, which fell to pocket jacks.
My opening table was a relatively conservative group. The kid two seats to my right looked like he just turned 18, but he showed to be a decent player. He showed a nice amount of aggression early without playing wild and he built up a nice chip stack.
I'm moderately ahead of the table average, but behind this kid when this early-stage hand comes along with me in the small blind.
I'm dealt AQ off suit. Action gets to him and he raises to 300 (blinds are 50/100). I call and one other player stays.
Flop is 8K5. I am curious as to where I am and bet moderately 300 and stare straight ahead. But because I am in a corner type seat, I can see the kid out of the corner of my eye. Other guy folds and the kid sits there staring at the board. After a few moments pass and me staring straight ahead he calls.
Turn card was another low card. I check and continue to glaze forward. Again, he stares at the board, looks down at his chips and bets $500. I call.
River is empty 8, pairing the board but not helping my hand. I check again and get the same reaction from the kid. Looking at the board, nothing more. I look at him. He stares at the board, then looks directly down at his chips, grabbing about $1600 which he throws in the pot.
I'm dead. I have nothing and he's been betting the whole time. A call makes no sense for me because if I do it and lose, I'm down to about 600 chips.
I still question his hands: Does he have quad eights? Does he have trip eights? Does he have a king?
To answer I replay the hand in my head, and quickly eliminate an 8, mainly because a flop with a king probably would have slowed him down a bit. The couple hands I've seen him show down his style has been limp with small to medium pairs and raise with Ace/anything, and I haven't seen him show down high pairs.
I don't get into all the reasoning here, but eventually I figure his likely hands are AK or pocket kings. But as I replay the hand, the most important factor stares at me: he never looked at me, or my stack...and this has not been in his style except very early when we were all even.
His actions were look at the board and look at his own stack, moves some very inexperienced players will make when they are simply asking themselves, how much can I lose if my bluff fails here. (People that watch tell videos or study tells know that if a player looks at their chips it's usually a sign of strength. But this tell is almost always done immediately and often without thinking, a big difference from what he was doing). If he had trips or even a king, he'd be more curious to find out how much more he can win from me. And so his bet seemed more random than "I really want you to bet."
And as I try to decide my move, I look at him, look at the board, look ahead and pick up my cards, shuffling them in my hands. He can't take his eyes off the board.
I call. He turns over A 10 off, and I take down the pot. From that point forward, I pretty much own him the rest of the tournament, and the table also sits shocked I made the call. But it made it a lot easier to build up my stack from then on out and leave the table many rounds later as the large stack.
As a side note: The kid outlasted me. He got a few nice wins on races and kept playing an overall solid game. He and I ended up at the same table together when I got eliminated outside about 6 spots outside the money. My losing hand was AK, which fell to pocket jacks.
Sunday, May 22, 2011
Bet your hand
The youth movement in poker has tended to make the game a bit more aggressive. A lot of players like to shove with a variety of cards. KJ offsuit, a hand many pros of old would likely toss seems to be a hand a young gun is more than willing to shove on. The philosophy seems to be to make your opponent make the decisions and more times than not you get the pot.
On the other hand, you have guys who won't bet premiums. First hand of a multi-table tournament I get the big blind, and am dealt 98 off suit. Five players before me all limp, and I check. Flop come 8 5 2. I bet $50 (blinds were simple 5/10 so pot had $60) to see if my pair of eights are good. Two folds and two calls followed by a fold. Next card is an 8 giving me trips. Pot holds $210 so I bet $130. Both call. Last card is a 9, giving me a boat. $600 in the pot, and I want action so I bet $130 again. Second player raises to $400, next player thinks then folds.
The board is 85289, with no flush draw. Unless he has nines, I have the hand won, so I shove. He calls and he turns over kings and his slow play costs him the first exit in the tournament.
Had he simply raised preflop, or even raised on the flop most of the time I am folding my hand. The bottom line is if you have a premium hand preflop you are looking to go heads up, you don't want five or six players in the pot and this is a classic example of why. And that also explains why a lot of the young players today feel a shove is a good play...it quickly eliminates the competition and even if you just pick up the blinds, you win the hand.
On the other hand, you have guys who won't bet premiums. First hand of a multi-table tournament I get the big blind, and am dealt 98 off suit. Five players before me all limp, and I check. Flop come 8 5 2. I bet $50 (blinds were simple 5/10 so pot had $60) to see if my pair of eights are good. Two folds and two calls followed by a fold. Next card is an 8 giving me trips. Pot holds $210 so I bet $130. Both call. Last card is a 9, giving me a boat. $600 in the pot, and I want action so I bet $130 again. Second player raises to $400, next player thinks then folds.
The board is 85289, with no flush draw. Unless he has nines, I have the hand won, so I shove. He calls and he turns over kings and his slow play costs him the first exit in the tournament.
Had he simply raised preflop, or even raised on the flop most of the time I am folding my hand. The bottom line is if you have a premium hand preflop you are looking to go heads up, you don't want five or six players in the pot and this is a classic example of why. And that also explains why a lot of the young players today feel a shove is a good play...it quickly eliminates the competition and even if you just pick up the blinds, you win the hand.
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
More pocket aces go down
Unless you are in a pretty high stakes game, pocket aces never seem all that great in a limit hold em game.
That's one reason I do like to play places with aces cracked bonuses. This week I had mine cracked by trip jacks. It's still a tough spot.
On this particular hand I had the aces, and about 4-5 players are in the hand. Flop comes JJ7. One guy leads out, I call and the others all fold. Turn is a dead card (3 or 4 I think, off suit). He leads out again. I call. Then the river was a 10. He checks, and it's at this point that you have to think about the hand. a bit more. Did he check because he doesn't have anything? Does he have a boat and hope that I bet and he can reraise. In either case, is it worth betting? There's always a small chance he throws away the hand that would crack your aces if you do. In this case, he might have. I check he sheepishly turned over J8 for trip jacks. I turn over the aces and we're all happy.
The reason he might have thrown it is I called the whole way, the flop call was easy if I flopped a full house, since there was action behind me I'd want most of it in. After it's me and him on the turn, if I had a full house and raised on his bet, he'd know it and likely fold. So odds are better I let him play to the river and try to extract the extra chips then. And my action would also be consistent if I had a hand of like J8 myself. Decent flop, weak kicker, and it would be easy for him to put me on a jack.So if he put me on one of those hands, it's not out of the realm of possibility that he folds. If you have him beat, so you don't get the extra chips, but the risk/reward ration for the bonus would justify not betting on the river.
But then playing later after aces crack hours were done, I get them again and am short stacked. Action comes to me and I do what I have to do by raising. I go all in on the flop which is 34J. Couple callers and then on the turn, one lady bets out everyone folds, she turns over a 3-4 and her two pair end my poker day. If it was no limit, she's not even in the hand since I'm raising likely 4-5x the blind at that point.
That's one reason I do like to play places with aces cracked bonuses. This week I had mine cracked by trip jacks. It's still a tough spot.
On this particular hand I had the aces, and about 4-5 players are in the hand. Flop comes JJ7. One guy leads out, I call and the others all fold. Turn is a dead card (3 or 4 I think, off suit). He leads out again. I call. Then the river was a 10. He checks, and it's at this point that you have to think about the hand. a bit more. Did he check because he doesn't have anything? Does he have a boat and hope that I bet and he can reraise. In either case, is it worth betting? There's always a small chance he throws away the hand that would crack your aces if you do. In this case, he might have. I check he sheepishly turned over J8 for trip jacks. I turn over the aces and we're all happy.
The reason he might have thrown it is I called the whole way, the flop call was easy if I flopped a full house, since there was action behind me I'd want most of it in. After it's me and him on the turn, if I had a full house and raised on his bet, he'd know it and likely fold. So odds are better I let him play to the river and try to extract the extra chips then. And my action would also be consistent if I had a hand of like J8 myself. Decent flop, weak kicker, and it would be easy for him to put me on a jack.So if he put me on one of those hands, it's not out of the realm of possibility that he folds. If you have him beat, so you don't get the extra chips, but the risk/reward ration for the bonus would justify not betting on the river.
But then playing later after aces crack hours were done, I get them again and am short stacked. Action comes to me and I do what I have to do by raising. I go all in on the flop which is 34J. Couple callers and then on the turn, one lady bets out everyone folds, she turns over a 3-4 and her two pair end my poker day. If it was no limit, she's not even in the hand since I'm raising likely 4-5x the blind at that point.
Friday, April 29, 2011
Medium pairs
One of the hands I have a love/hate relationship with is medium pairs (7-8). Very few times will you ever fold them preflop, and in a limit game, deciding rather to just call or raise isn't that hard.
But no-limit can be troublesome. Raise bigger from early position? Limp? I tend to mix up my early play, limping most of the time and raising big probably 20-30 percent of the time.
I just don't know if it's ideal. My play is based on the lose less money when your hand doesn't hit philosophy, which will happen more times than not. But it also doesn't get rid of any weak Aces or kings, making it more likely my medium pair will be out flopped.
But the limp play sometimes makes it easier to win bigger pots when your hand does hit. Let's say I have 8-8, 2nd to act, and I limp, as do 5 others. Six players total, and the flop comes A-8-3 rainbow. It's fairly obvious no one has a real strong ace, by the lack of action, but an A-8, or A-3 is possible. And any player with a decent ace will still stay. If I lead out here, I'd go about 3/4 pot-pot sized bet or more depending on the flop (rainbow, all suited, 2 suits, etc...). Bet stronger if there's two of the same suit, less if rainbowed or all the same suit. Anyone who made the nut flush will stay in, but isn't likely to be too aggressive, wanting to extract as much as he can from the board. And you want to give anyone on a flush draw the improper odds to call. (It's amazing how many people ignore the odds and chase on the flop).
And I'm often lost on late to act preflop. If there's a 3x-5x raise in front of me, it's okay to assume my 8s are the low hand right now, but is it worth it to call the raise?
All limpers and my 8s may be good. Do I raise and how much? Ideally, I want a heads up situation, rather I create it or the initial raiser does. And if you know your opponent, and can put him on the proper hand, even if you miss your pair, can you pull off a bluff?
But no-limit can be troublesome. Raise bigger from early position? Limp? I tend to mix up my early play, limping most of the time and raising big probably 20-30 percent of the time.
I just don't know if it's ideal. My play is based on the lose less money when your hand doesn't hit philosophy, which will happen more times than not. But it also doesn't get rid of any weak Aces or kings, making it more likely my medium pair will be out flopped.
But the limp play sometimes makes it easier to win bigger pots when your hand does hit. Let's say I have 8-8, 2nd to act, and I limp, as do 5 others. Six players total, and the flop comes A-8-3 rainbow. It's fairly obvious no one has a real strong ace, by the lack of action, but an A-8, or A-3 is possible. And any player with a decent ace will still stay. If I lead out here, I'd go about 3/4 pot-pot sized bet or more depending on the flop (rainbow, all suited, 2 suits, etc...). Bet stronger if there's two of the same suit, less if rainbowed or all the same suit. Anyone who made the nut flush will stay in, but isn't likely to be too aggressive, wanting to extract as much as he can from the board. And you want to give anyone on a flush draw the improper odds to call. (It's amazing how many people ignore the odds and chase on the flop).
And I'm often lost on late to act preflop. If there's a 3x-5x raise in front of me, it's okay to assume my 8s are the low hand right now, but is it worth it to call the raise?
All limpers and my 8s may be good. Do I raise and how much? Ideally, I want a heads up situation, rather I create it or the initial raiser does. And if you know your opponent, and can put him on the proper hand, even if you miss your pair, can you pull off a bluff?
Sunday, April 24, 2011
The perils of pocket Aces
Recently I ended up in a hand I've always worried about. Instincts always tell me to raise on pocket aces, but here's an example of a 4-8 limit cash game where it's not as easy a raise as it seems.
I'm on the button, and look down to see the two black beauties. Seems obvious when the action gets to me, I'm raising those aces. Except, at this nine player table, all six players in front of me call, meaning in theory there is $30 in the pot already (I say in theory because I'm not subtracting any rakes). If I raise that ups it to $38. And the purpose of a raise like this is to get rid of players and hopefully develop a potential heads up. But if I make it 38, the small blind is looking at $6 to a $38 pot. Unless he's holding 7-2, 8-3 or the like, logic says you put in the six, since it's better than 6 to 1 pot odds. Either way, the big blind then just has $4 to put into a pot of either $38 or possibly $44. 9 to 1 or 11 to 1 pot odds is an another easy move.
And as the action moves around a second time, there's no reason for anyone who called initially to now fold as the pot builds.
By the end of the first round betting, the pot can be at $72. That's real nice if your pocket aces hold up. But odds are really going against you now. Six initial callers indicate that no one feels real strong about their hands to raise, so you have a wide variety of hands, likely a couple of suited connectors, a K-J, and more importantly, very likely at least one, if not two, players with A-medium/low, a typical 4-8 starting hand that is worth sticking around cheap for, but not raising. What does this mean? It means with nine players, pocket Aces is least likely to improve. And it's very likely someone flops trips, a flush or connects the straight.
But is just a call any better? You wouldn't think so, but in a hand like this, I think it can be the proper play. No one is going to leave the hand, and it's unlikely you improve, but who is going to throw away Aces at any point on a hand? The pot will be nice enough by the end in the unlikely case the aces hold, but your bankroll takes less of a hit in the more likely case you lose.
At best, if everyone is in the hand, Aces hold about a 47 percent chance of winning. And that is based only on completely random hands held by others (in other words, no real legitimate starting hand, such as pocket pair, connectors, suited, etc...). But few players just play two random cards. Most have a reason to play, thus the realistic odds give the aces just a 15-25% chance of holding up.
The best scenario would be if you raised on the button and then either the small or big blind re-raised. $4 into a $40 pot may be no issue, but when you raise and the big blind re-raises, now everyone before you has to decide if $8 into the pot is worth it. The lead position is looking at $8 into a $52 pot.
Even though at this point pot odds suggest everyone would stick around, a few may fold just because psychologically 3-bets preflop is a lot tougher than 2, especially knowing that I can still reraise. So the big blind helps you out here.
Let's suppose it got back to me and everyone stayed. The pot has now grown to $92 and I can cap the betting with another raise if I want. It hard to say if capping makes sense then or not. If everyone stayed, a cap builds the pot, won't get rid of anybody and really makes the aces vulnerable. But if the aces hold, then that $144 preflop pot is nice.
In the real hand I just called. And the SB and BB just called. The flop came 7-2-Q rainbow. Three players check before a player bets. Two stay, two fold. I call. SB, BB fold, final guy calls.
Turn J. Now I know I'm dead. Same lead better leads out again. One caller, one folder. I call and one exits, leaving three of us. River is a 5, and I know I have no business staying after the leader leads out again. He gets called, and at this point even though I know I'm beat, pot odds say it makes no sense to lay down.
Indeed, first player had Q-7 suited for two pair and the other guy mucks, as do I.
It left me wondering if a raise might have chased him out, but still I think I made the right play.
I'm on the button, and look down to see the two black beauties. Seems obvious when the action gets to me, I'm raising those aces. Except, at this nine player table, all six players in front of me call, meaning in theory there is $30 in the pot already (I say in theory because I'm not subtracting any rakes). If I raise that ups it to $38. And the purpose of a raise like this is to get rid of players and hopefully develop a potential heads up. But if I make it 38, the small blind is looking at $6 to a $38 pot. Unless he's holding 7-2, 8-3 or the like, logic says you put in the six, since it's better than 6 to 1 pot odds. Either way, the big blind then just has $4 to put into a pot of either $38 or possibly $44. 9 to 1 or 11 to 1 pot odds is an another easy move.
And as the action moves around a second time, there's no reason for anyone who called initially to now fold as the pot builds.
By the end of the first round betting, the pot can be at $72. That's real nice if your pocket aces hold up. But odds are really going against you now. Six initial callers indicate that no one feels real strong about their hands to raise, so you have a wide variety of hands, likely a couple of suited connectors, a K-J, and more importantly, very likely at least one, if not two, players with A-medium/low, a typical 4-8 starting hand that is worth sticking around cheap for, but not raising. What does this mean? It means with nine players, pocket Aces is least likely to improve. And it's very likely someone flops trips, a flush or connects the straight.
But is just a call any better? You wouldn't think so, but in a hand like this, I think it can be the proper play. No one is going to leave the hand, and it's unlikely you improve, but who is going to throw away Aces at any point on a hand? The pot will be nice enough by the end in the unlikely case the aces hold, but your bankroll takes less of a hit in the more likely case you lose.
At best, if everyone is in the hand, Aces hold about a 47 percent chance of winning. And that is based only on completely random hands held by others (in other words, no real legitimate starting hand, such as pocket pair, connectors, suited, etc...). But few players just play two random cards. Most have a reason to play, thus the realistic odds give the aces just a 15-25% chance of holding up.
The best scenario would be if you raised on the button and then either the small or big blind re-raised. $4 into a $40 pot may be no issue, but when you raise and the big blind re-raises, now everyone before you has to decide if $8 into the pot is worth it. The lead position is looking at $8 into a $52 pot.
Even though at this point pot odds suggest everyone would stick around, a few may fold just because psychologically 3-bets preflop is a lot tougher than 2, especially knowing that I can still reraise. So the big blind helps you out here.
Let's suppose it got back to me and everyone stayed. The pot has now grown to $92 and I can cap the betting with another raise if I want. It hard to say if capping makes sense then or not. If everyone stayed, a cap builds the pot, won't get rid of anybody and really makes the aces vulnerable. But if the aces hold, then that $144 preflop pot is nice.
In the real hand I just called. And the SB and BB just called. The flop came 7-2-Q rainbow. Three players check before a player bets. Two stay, two fold. I call. SB, BB fold, final guy calls.
Turn J. Now I know I'm dead. Same lead better leads out again. One caller, one folder. I call and one exits, leaving three of us. River is a 5, and I know I have no business staying after the leader leads out again. He gets called, and at this point even though I know I'm beat, pot odds say it makes no sense to lay down.
Indeed, first player had Q-7 suited for two pair and the other guy mucks, as do I.
It left me wondering if a raise might have chased him out, but still I think I made the right play.
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